This page displays predictions and results for college football bowl and conference champioship games for the 2022 CFB season. These predictions come from a model built on historical college football play by play and game data in order to simulate upcoming games. All data is from collegefootballdata.com.
The following tables display the results of simulating postseason and conference championship games for the 2022 CFB season 1000 times. These simulations are run using information on all previous game outcomes in the lead up to each game.
Quality indicates the quality of the teams involved in the game. This is the (harmonic) mean of the two team’s pregame ratings and is scaled to range from 0 to 100, with 100 indicating a game between highly rated opponents.
Interest indicates how interesting/appealing a matchup is expected to be based on Quality and how close the game is expected to be. I assign every game a competitive rating using a quadratic formula applied to Pr(HomeWin), which I use along with Quality in a weighted average to produce the Interest score. This ranges from 0 to 100, where 100 indicates a very competitive game between two highly rated opponents.
Pr(HomeWin) is the percentage of times that the home team won the game across every simulation.
The model predicts the probability that the home team will win and their expected margin of victory (or defeat). I assess the model’s performance by assessing the accuracy of its predictions (win/loss), the logloss of its probabilities, and the mean absolute error of the margin.
| season | type | accuracy | mae | mn_log_loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | postseason | 0.686 | 10.48 | 0.579 |