Predicting Upcoming Board Games

Predictive Models for BoardGameGeek Ratings

Author

Phil Henrickson

Published

May 28, 2025

1 Predictions

I use historical data from BoardGameGeek (BGG) to train a number of predictive models for community ratings. I first classify games based on their probability of achieving a minimum number of ratings on BGG. I then estimate each game’s complexity (average weight) in order to predicts its number of user ratings and average rating. I then use these estimates to predict the expected Geek Rating.

1.1 Upcoming Games

The following table displays predicted BGG outcomes for games that are expected to achieve at least 25 user ratings.

1.2 Top Predictions by Year

What are the model’s top predictions for each year?

Top Upcoming Predictions: 2024
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Undergrove (2024) 2.81 8.38 17700 8.09
2 The Paradox Initiative (2024) 3.10 7.83 18400 7.60
3 Unconscious Mind (2024) 3.43 8.13 6900 7.54
4 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
5 De Zoektocht naar El Dorado: Big Box (2024) 2.33 8.18 4350 7.34
6 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
7 Arcs (2024) 3.10 8.13 3900 7.24
8 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
9 Beyond the Horizon (2024) 3.50 7.89 4850 7.19
10 Stephens (2024) 3.83 8.18 3400 7.19
11 Sankoré: The Pride of Mansa Musa (2024) 4.15 8.41 2750 7.18
12 Teotihuacan: City of Gods – Deluxe Master Set (2024) 3.53 8.26 3050 7.17
13 Unmatched: Sun’s Origin (2024) 2.30 8.47 2500 7.15
14 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
15 Life in Reterra (2024) 2.01 7.45 7300 7.03
16 Let’s Go! To Japan (2024) 2.07 7.49 6350 7.01
17 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Fear of the Unknown (2024) 2.72 8.07 2600 6.95
18 Takenokolor (2024) 1.76 7.86 3150 6.95
19 Nocturne (2024) 2.13 7.41 5650 6.91
20 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
21 Unmatched: Slings and Arrows (2024) 2.01 8.07 2350 6.89
22 The Bad Karmas and The Curse of the Zodiac (2024) 2.63 8.12 2100 6.84
23 Cities (2024) 1.84 7.56 3550 6.82
24 Cascadia: Rolling Rivers (2024) 2.03 7.42 4250 6.80
25 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2025
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Gloomhaven (Second Edition) (2025) 3.61 8.67 5750 7.85
2 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
3 Moon Colony Bloodbath (2025) 2.66 8.26 3550 7.27
4 The Dead Keep (2025) 2.88 8.38 2650 7.14
5 Nemesis: Retaliation (2025) 3.20 8.03 2600 6.93
6 The Lord of the Rings: Fate of the Fellowship (2025) 3.19 8.10 2450 6.93
7 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
8 Food Chain Magnate: Deluxe Edition (2025) 3.80 8.62 1400 6.78
9 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.85 8.15 1850 6.77
10 Sanctuary (2025) 3.14 7.96 1850 6.68
11 Natera: New Beginning (2025) 3.62 8.05 1650 6.65
12 Reign of Hades (2025) 3.31 8.41 1250 6.62
13 Zombicide: White Death (2025) 3.10 8.19 1350 6.58
14 Horror on the Orient Express: The Board Game (2025) 2.90 8.02 1450 6.56
15 Finspan (2025) 2.21 7.62 1950 6.55
16 Galactic Cruise (2025) 4.57 8.36 1150 6.54
17 Photo Tour: North America (2025) 2.09 7.71 1750 6.53
18 HeroQuest: First Light (2025) 2.54 7.68 1700 6.50
19 The Eternaut (2025) 3.14 8.23 1100 6.47
20 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
21 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
22 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
23 Avalon: The Riven Veil (2025) 3.77 8.31 1000 6.44
24 Ashes Ascendancy (2025) 2.91 8.31 1000 6.44
25 EGO (2025) 3.04 7.77 1400 6.44
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2026
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Terminus Frontier (2026) 4.21 8.97 2550 7.45
2 Aeon’s End: Beyond the Breach (2026) 3.07 8.50 2150 7.05
3 SCUM: An Eclipse Phase Board Game (2026) 3.61 8.18 2200 6.90
4 Cultured Swines (2026) 1.76 7.46 2300 6.55
5 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
6 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures: Deluxe Edition (2026) 2.89 8.20 950 6.37
7 Trismegistus: New Edition (2026) 3.45 7.99 900 6.27
8 Echoes of the Sundering (2026) 2.97 8.20 700 6.20
9 Battle Monsters: Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (2026) 2.28 8.15 600 6.11
10 Flash Point: Golden State Heroes (2026) 2.31 7.59 750 6.07
11 Misfit Heroes (2026) 1.95 7.53 750 6.05
12 Kalypso (2026) 2.44 7.64 700 6.05
13 Tikal Legend (2026) 3.68 8.05 550 6.05
14 Battle Monsters: Kong vs Mechagodzilla (2026) 2.27 8.16 500 6.03
15 Verrago: The Fantasy Globe Game (2026) 3.63 8.40 450 6.03
16 Cascadia: Alpine Lakes (2026) 2.18 7.67 650 6.03
17 Restart (2026) 3.56 7.86 500 5.97
18 Vineyard: A Winemaking Game (2026) 2.51 7.76 500 5.95
19 Casus Belli (2026) 3.57 7.89 450 5.94
20 Spokes (2026) 1.87 7.89 450 5.94
21 Starclash (2026) 3.88 8.41 350 5.93
22 14ers (2026) 2.09 7.54 500 5.91
23 Formaggio (2026) 2.24 7.51 500 5.90
24 Pirates of the High Teas (2026) 2.10 7.30 550 5.89
25 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Forbidden Reaches (2026) 2.84 7.69 400 5.87
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2027
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Agricola: Dead Harvest (2027) 2.96 7.77 500 5.95
2 No Going Back (2027) 2.72 8.28 300 5.86
3 Hubworld: Aidalon (2027) 2.45 7.51 100 5.60
4 The Great Fire of Chicago 1871 (2027) 2.26 7.25 100 5.58
5 Hold’em High: Outlaws and Industry (2027) 2.13 7.15 50 5.54

1.3 Top Predictions by Category

What are the model’s top predictions for different genres of upcoming games?

Top Upcoming Predictions: Economic
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
2 Stephens (2024) 3.83 8.18 3400 7.19
3 Sankoré: The Pride of Mansa Musa (2024) 4.15 8.41 2750 7.18
4 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
5 Food Chain Magnate: Deluxe Edition (2025) 3.80 8.62 1400 6.78
6 Power Grid: Outpost (2024) 3.31 7.98 1750 6.66
7 Natera: New Beginning (2025) 3.62 8.05 1650 6.65
8 Galactic Cruise (2025) 4.57 8.36 1150 6.54
9 Frozen Frontier (2024) 4.27 8.22 1200 6.52
10 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
11 Windmill Valley (2024) 3.05 7.82 1400 6.46
12 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
13 El Burro: A La Granja Game (2024) 3.32 7.98 1200 6.43
14 Oh My Goods!: Big Box (2024) 2.39 8.02 1150 6.42
15 Ascendancy (2024) 3.85 7.94 1200 6.41
16 Speakeasy (2025) 4.13 8.08 1000 6.36
17 Black Forest (2024) 3.95 7.98 1000 6.33
18 House of Fado (2025) 2.58 7.65 1200 6.31
19 Great Western Trail: El Paso (2025) 2.84 7.98 900 6.27
20 Capybara Crush (2025) 1.86 7.81 950 6.24
21 Civolution (2024) 3.87 7.99 800 6.21
22 DAVOS (2025) 2.66 7.55 1050 6.21
23 La Pâtisserie Rococo (2025) 3.89 8.08 650 6.13
24 Foundations of Rome (Maximus Edition) (2024) 2.24 7.47 900 6.11
25 Sweet Lands (2025) 3.83 8.10 600 6.10
Top Upcoming Predictions: Card Game
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
2 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
3 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
4 Moon Colony Bloodbath (2025) 2.66 8.26 3550 7.27
5 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
6 Unmatched: Sun’s Origin (2024) 2.30 8.47 2500 7.15
7 Aeon’s End: Beyond the Breach (2026) 3.07 8.50 2150 7.05
8 Let’s Go! To Japan (2024) 2.07 7.49 6350 7.01
9 Unmatched: Slings and Arrows (2024) 2.01 8.07 2350 6.89
10 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
11 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.85 8.15 1850 6.77
12 Wyrmspan (2024) 2.59 7.83 2350 6.76
13 Astro Knights: Eternity (2024) 2.88 8.25 1600 6.72
14 Finspan (2025) 2.21 7.62 1950 6.55
15 Photo Tour: North America (2025) 2.09 7.71 1750 6.53
16 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
17 Biome (2024) 2.52 8.02 1250 6.47
18 The Eternaut (2025) 3.14 8.23 1100 6.47
19 Imperium: Horizons (2024) 3.68 8.06 1200 6.46
20 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
21 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
22 Ashes Ascendancy (2025) 2.91 8.31 1000 6.44
23 El Burro: A La Granja Game (2024) 3.32 7.98 1200 6.43
24 Oh My Goods!: Big Box (2024) 2.39 8.02 1150 6.42
25 Unmatched: The Witcher – Realms Fall (2025) 2.12 8.17 1000 6.39
Top Upcoming Predictions: Wargame
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Arcs (2024) 3.10 8.13 3900 7.24
2 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
3 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
4 Warleague (2024) 3.04 8.38 1050 6.49
5 American Civil War Commander (2024) 3.48 8.49 700 6.28
6 Undaunted 2200: Callisto (2024) 2.56 7.61 1150 6.27
7 Axis & Allies: North Africa (2024) 3.44 8.04 850 6.26
8 Dune: War for Arrakis (2024) 3.55 7.84 900 6.23
9 The Mesol War (2025) 3.55 8.37 600 6.16
10 1848: The Springtime of Nations (2024) 3.55 8.28 500 6.06
11 Night Witches (2025) 2.68 8.05 500 6.01
12 Axis & Allies: Stalingrad (2025) 3.01 8.13 450 5.98
13 Star Wars: Battle of Hoth (2025) 2.06 7.90 500 5.98
14 The Republic’s Struggle (2024) 3.41 8.07 450 5.97
15 Line of Fire: Burnt Moon (2025) 2.32 7.84 500 5.97
16 Imperial Borders (2025) 3.19 8.00 450 5.96
17 Red Dust Rebellion (2024) 3.30 7.99 450 5.96
18 Starclash (2026) 3.88 8.41 350 5.93
19 Heroes of Might and Magic: Battles (2025) 3.06 8.35 350 5.92
20 Diplomacy: Era of Empire (2025) 3.31 7.91 400 5.90
21 Hannibal: Classic Edition (2025) 2.99 8.58 300 5.90
22 Build & Destroy: Barrinium Dawn (2024) 4.17 8.50 300 5.89
23 A Gest of Robin Hood (2024) 2.88 8.02 350 5.88
24 Tanto Monta: The Rise of Ferdinand & Isabella 1470-1516 (2024) 3.74 8.37 300 5.87
25 Aldarra (2024) 3.64 8.33 300 5.87
Top Upcoming Predictions: Fantasy
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Gloomhaven (Second Edition) (2025) 3.61 8.67 5750 7.85
2 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
3 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
4 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
5 The Dead Keep (2025) 2.88 8.38 2650 7.14
6 Aeon’s End: Beyond the Breach (2026) 3.07 8.50 2150 7.05
7 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
8 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Fear of the Unknown (2024) 2.72 8.07 2600 6.95
9 The Lord of the Rings: Fate of the Fellowship (2025) 3.19 8.10 2450 6.93
10 Nocturne (2024) 2.13 7.41 5650 6.91
11 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
12 Unmatched: Slings and Arrows (2024) 2.01 8.07 2350 6.89
13 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
14 The Bad Karmas and The Curse of the Zodiac (2024) 2.63 8.12 2100 6.84
15 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.85 8.15 1850 6.77
16 Wyrmspan (2024) 2.59 7.83 2350 6.76
17 Zombicide: White Death (2025) 3.10 8.19 1350 6.58
18 Weirdwood Manor (2024) 3.66 8.35 1200 6.57
19 Phantom Epoch (2024) 3.71 8.57 1000 6.52
20 HeroQuest: First Light (2025) 2.54 7.68 1700 6.50
21 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
22 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
23 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
24 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
25 Avalon: The Riven Veil (2025) 3.77 8.31 1000 6.44
Top Upcoming Predictions: Abstract Strategy
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Cities (2024) 1.84 7.56 3550 6.82
2 Umbrella (2024) 1.73 7.22 1550 6.25
3 Capybara Crush (2025) 1.86 7.81 950 6.24
4 Santorini: Pantheon Edition (2025) 1.55 7.59 1000 6.20
5 Santorini: Second Edition (2025) 1.56 7.59 900 6.15
6 Wispwood (2025) 1.98 7.50 900 6.12
7 Fire Flowers (Clear Duets & Solo Series) (2024) 1.90 7.37 900 6.08
8 Cascadia: Alpine Lakes (2026) 2.18 7.67 650 6.03
9 Knitting Circle (2025) 1.96 7.34 650 5.95
10 Spokes (2026) 1.87 7.89 450 5.94
11 Build & Destroy: Barrinium Dawn (2024) 4.17 8.50 300 5.89
12 BOG (2024) 1.69 7.17 600 5.89
13 Clients Versus Architects (2025) 3.36 8.05 300 5.83
14 Crops (2025) 2.01 7.47 400 5.83
15 Quiltable: Paper Quilts (2024) 1.94 7.68 350 5.82
16 Intarsia (2024) 2.11 7.16 450 5.81
17 Coney (2024) 1.95 7.33 400 5.81
18 Seed (2024) 1.74 7.28 400 5.80
19 Cascadero (2024) 2.62 7.77 300 5.80
20 My Little Pony: Festival of Lanterns (2025) 1.88 7.11 450 5.80
21 Hidden Leaders Duel (2025) 1.90 7.41 350 5.78
22 Hexer, reino del caos (2024) 1.85 7.29 350 5.77
23 Overgrowth (2024) 2.03 7.53 300 5.76
24 Tesela (2024) 1.76 7.27 350 5.76
25 MATRX GIPF (2024) 2.36 7.50 300 5.76
Top Upcoming Predictions: Dice
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
2 Cascadia: Rolling Rivers (2024) 2.03 7.42 4250 6.80
3 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
4 King of Tokyo: Duel (2024) 1.79 7.54 2500 6.64
5 Horror on the Orient Express: The Board Game (2025) 2.90 8.02 1450 6.56
6 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
7 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
8 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
9 Cascadia: Rolling Hills (2024) 2.03 7.34 1900 6.40
10 Inventors of the South Tigris (2024) 3.37 7.73 1150 6.31
11 Flash Point: Legacy of Flame (2025) 2.39 7.69 1150 6.30
12 Swindler’s Chest (2025) 1.74 7.31 1550 6.29
13 Trismegistus: New Edition (2026) 3.45 7.99 900 6.27
14 A Song of Ice & Fire: Tactics – Battle of the Trident (2025) 2.57 7.96 900 6.26
15 Ada’s Dream (2025) 3.16 7.85 950 6.26
16 Witchbound (2025) 2.68 7.85 900 6.23
17 Dune: War for Arrakis (2024) 3.55 7.84 900 6.23
18 Arydia: The Paths We Dare Tread (2025) 3.38 8.15 750 6.22
19 Civolution (2024) 3.87 7.99 800 6.21
20 Enormity (2025) 3.22 8.11 650 6.14
21 King of Tokyo: Origins (2024) 1.57 7.15 1250 6.13
22 Saltfjord (2024) 2.89 7.78 750 6.12
23 Emerald Skulls (2025) 1.68 7.31 1050 6.12
24 Rocket Rescue (2024) 3.35 7.95 650 6.10
25 Marvel Dice Throne: Captain Marvel, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Black Widow (2024) 1.91 7.78 700 6.09
Top Upcoming Predictions: Party Game
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Cultured Swines (2026) 1.76 7.46 2300 6.55
2 Немного Ту-Ту (Brain Train) (2025) 1.36 7.83 1200 6.37
3 One Round? (2025) 1.11 7.43 850 6.07
4 Poetry for Neanderthals: Pop Culture Edition (2024) 1.00 7.13 1000 6.04
5 Destek Köstek (2024) 1.13 7.25 700 5.95
6 Context (2024) 1.42 7.36 600 5.93
7 Tawa (2024) 1.37 7.50 450 5.87
8 Party Panda Pirates (2024) 1.43 7.49 400 5.83
9 Deadly Dinner: Kaviar Kills (2024) 2.31 7.42 400 5.82
10 Excalibur (2025) 1.71 7.40 400 5.82
11 KADO (2024) 1.36 7.03 500 5.81
12 Fake Crime (2025) 1.33 7.15 450 5.80
13 Finding Anastasia (2024) 2.27 7.71 300 5.79
14 Anne Bonny’s Malediction (2025) 1.42 7.00 450 5.78
15 EKKO (2024) 1.39 6.91 450 5.76
16 Cyberpunk Attack (2024) 2.24 7.49 300 5.76
17 Landmarks (2024) 1.11 6.88 400 5.73
18 Crimescene (2024) 1.47 7.23 300 5.73
19 Kaijus From Space! (2025) 2.05 7.96 200 5.72
20 Motley (2024) 1.31 7.17 300 5.72
21 Patinhos de Bo’Racha (2024) 1.85 7.15 300 5.72
22 What on Earth Are You Talking About? (2024) 1.22 6.94 350 5.71
23 Dream Catcher (2024) 1.42 7.04 300 5.70
24 Things in Rings (2024) 1.16 7.00 300 5.70
25 One Card Wonders (2024) 1.45 7.25 250 5.69