Predicting Upcoming Board Games
Predictive Models for BoardGameGeek Ratings
1 Predictions
I use historical data from BoardGameGeek (BGG) to train a number of predictive models for community ratings. I first classify games based on their probability of achieving a minimum number of ratings on BGG. I then estimate each game’s complexity (average weight) in order to predicts its number of user ratings and average rating. I then use these estimates to predict the expected Geek Rating.
1.1 Upcoming Games
The following table displays predicted BGG outcomes for games that are expected to achieve at least 25 user ratings.
1.2 Top Predictions by Year
What are the model’s top predictions for each year?
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2027 | ||||||
Rank | Image | Game | Average Weight | Average Rating | Users Rated | Geek Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
Agricola: Dead Harvest (2027) | 2.96 | 7.77 | 500 | 5.95 |
2 | ![]() |
No Going Back (2027) | 2.72 | 8.28 | 300 | 5.86 |
3 | ![]() |
Hubworld: Aidalon (2027) | 2.45 | 7.51 | 100 | 5.60 |
4 | ![]() |
The Great Fire of Chicago 1871 (2027) | 2.26 | 7.25 | 100 | 5.58 |
5 | ![]() |
Hold’em High: Outlaws and Industry (2027) | 2.13 | 7.15 | 50 | 5.54 |
1.3 Top Predictions by Category
What are the model’s top predictions for different genres of upcoming games?
Top Upcoming Predictions: Economic | ||||||
Rank | Image | Game | Average Weight | Average Rating | Users Rated | Geek Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
Pampero (2024) | 3.77 | 8.15 | 3800 | 7.23 |
2 | ![]() |
Stephens (2024) | 3.83 | 8.18 | 3400 | 7.19 |
3 | ![]() |
Sankoré: The Pride of Mansa Musa (2024) | 4.15 | 8.41 | 2750 | 7.18 |
4 | ![]() |
ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) | 2.76 | 7.57 | 3300 | 6.79 |
5 | ![]() |
Food Chain Magnate: Deluxe Edition (2025) | 3.80 | 8.62 | 1400 | 6.78 |
6 | ![]() |
Power Grid: Outpost (2024) | 3.31 | 7.98 | 1750 | 6.66 |
7 | ![]() |
Natera: New Beginning (2025) | 3.62 | 8.05 | 1650 | 6.65 |
8 | ![]() |
Galactic Cruise (2025) | 4.57 | 8.36 | 1150 | 6.54 |
9 | ![]() |
Frozen Frontier (2024) | 4.27 | 8.22 | 1200 | 6.52 |
10 | ![]() |
GROW SKY (2024) | 2.72 | 7.62 | 1700 | 6.47 |
11 | ![]() |
Windmill Valley (2024) | 3.05 | 7.82 | 1400 | 6.46 |
12 | ![]() |
Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) | 3.78 | 8.26 | 1050 | 6.45 |
13 | ![]() |
El Burro: A La Granja Game (2024) | 3.32 | 7.98 | 1200 | 6.43 |
14 | ![]() |
Oh My Goods!: Big Box (2024) | 2.39 | 8.02 | 1150 | 6.42 |
15 | ![]() |
Ascendancy (2024) | 3.85 | 7.94 | 1200 | 6.41 |
16 | ![]() |
Speakeasy (2025) | 4.13 | 8.08 | 1000 | 6.36 |
17 | ![]() |
Black Forest (2024) | 3.95 | 7.98 | 1000 | 6.33 |
18 | ![]() |
House of Fado (2025) | 2.58 | 7.65 | 1200 | 6.31 |
19 | ![]() |
Great Western Trail: El Paso (2025) | 2.84 | 7.98 | 900 | 6.27 |
20 | ![]() |
Capybara Crush (2025) | 1.86 | 7.81 | 950 | 6.24 |
21 | ![]() |
Civolution (2024) | 3.87 | 7.99 | 800 | 6.21 |
22 | ![]() |
DAVOS (2025) | 2.66 | 7.55 | 1050 | 6.21 |
23 | ![]() |
La Pâtisserie Rococo (2025) | 3.89 | 8.08 | 650 | 6.13 |
24 | ![]() |
Foundations of Rome (Maximus Edition) (2024) | 2.24 | 7.47 | 900 | 6.11 |
25 | ![]() |
Sweet Lands (2025) | 3.83 | 8.10 | 600 | 6.10 |
Top Upcoming Predictions: Abstract Strategy | ||||||
Rank | Image | Game | Average Weight | Average Rating | Users Rated | Geek Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
Cities (2024) | 1.84 | 7.56 | 3550 | 6.82 |
2 | ![]() |
Umbrella (2024) | 1.73 | 7.22 | 1550 | 6.25 |
3 | ![]() |
Capybara Crush (2025) | 1.86 | 7.81 | 950 | 6.24 |
4 | ![]() |
Santorini: Pantheon Edition (2025) | 1.55 | 7.59 | 1000 | 6.20 |
5 | ![]() |
Santorini: Second Edition (2025) | 1.56 | 7.59 | 900 | 6.15 |
6 | ![]() |
Wispwood (2025) | 1.98 | 7.50 | 900 | 6.12 |
7 | ![]() |
Fire Flowers (Clear Duets & Solo Series) (2024) | 1.90 | 7.37 | 900 | 6.08 |
8 | ![]() |
Cascadia: Alpine Lakes (2026) | 2.18 | 7.67 | 650 | 6.03 |
9 | ![]() |
Knitting Circle (2025) | 1.96 | 7.34 | 650 | 5.95 |
10 | ![]() |
Spokes (2026) | 1.87 | 7.89 | 450 | 5.94 |
11 | ![]() |
Build & Destroy: Barrinium Dawn (2024) | 4.17 | 8.50 | 300 | 5.89 |
12 | ![]() |
BOG (2024) | 1.69 | 7.17 | 600 | 5.89 |
13 | ![]() |
Clients Versus Architects (2025) | 3.36 | 8.05 | 300 | 5.83 |
14 | ![]() |
Crops (2025) | 2.01 | 7.47 | 400 | 5.83 |
15 | ![]() |
Quiltable: Paper Quilts (2024) | 1.94 | 7.68 | 350 | 5.82 |
16 | ![]() |
Intarsia (2024) | 2.11 | 7.16 | 450 | 5.81 |
17 | ![]() |
Coney (2024) | 1.95 | 7.33 | 400 | 5.81 |
18 | ![]() |
Seed (2024) | 1.74 | 7.28 | 400 | 5.80 |
19 | ![]() |
Cascadero (2024) | 2.62 | 7.77 | 300 | 5.80 |
20 | ![]() |
My Little Pony: Festival of Lanterns (2025) | 1.88 | 7.11 | 450 | 5.80 |
21 | ![]() |
Hidden Leaders Duel (2025) | 1.90 | 7.41 | 350 | 5.78 |
22 | ![]() |
Hexer, reino del caos (2024) | 1.85 | 7.29 | 350 | 5.77 |
23 | ![]() |
Overgrowth (2024) | 2.03 | 7.53 | 300 | 5.76 |
24 | ![]() |
Tesela (2024) | 1.76 | 7.27 | 350 | 5.76 |
25 | ![]() |
MATRX GIPF (2024) | 2.36 | 7.50 | 300 | 5.76 |
Top Upcoming Predictions: Party Game | ||||||
Rank | Image | Game | Average Weight | Average Rating | Users Rated | Geek Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
Cultured Swines (2026) | 1.76 | 7.46 | 2300 | 6.55 |
2 | ![]() |
Немного Ту-Ту (Brain Train) (2025) | 1.36 | 7.83 | 1200 | 6.37 |
3 | ![]() |
One Round? (2025) | 1.11 | 7.43 | 850 | 6.07 |
4 | ![]() |
Poetry for Neanderthals: Pop Culture Edition (2024) | 1.00 | 7.13 | 1000 | 6.04 |
5 | ![]() |
Destek Köstek (2024) | 1.13 | 7.25 | 700 | 5.95 |
6 | ![]() |
Context (2024) | 1.42 | 7.36 | 600 | 5.93 |
7 | ![]() |
Tawa (2024) | 1.37 | 7.50 | 450 | 5.87 |
8 | ![]() |
Party Panda Pirates (2024) | 1.43 | 7.49 | 400 | 5.83 |
9 | ![]() |
Deadly Dinner: Kaviar Kills (2024) | 2.31 | 7.42 | 400 | 5.82 |
10 | ![]() |
Excalibur (2025) | 1.71 | 7.40 | 400 | 5.82 |
11 | ![]() |
KADO (2024) | 1.36 | 7.03 | 500 | 5.81 |
12 | ![]() |
Fake Crime (2025) | 1.33 | 7.15 | 450 | 5.80 |
13 | ![]() |
Finding Anastasia (2024) | 2.27 | 7.71 | 300 | 5.79 |
14 | ![]() |
Anne Bonny’s Malediction (2025) | 1.42 | 7.00 | 450 | 5.78 |
15 | ![]() |
EKKO (2024) | 1.39 | 6.91 | 450 | 5.76 |
16 | ![]() |
Cyberpunk Attack (2024) | 2.24 | 7.49 | 300 | 5.76 |
17 | ![]() |
Landmarks (2024) | 1.11 | 6.88 | 400 | 5.73 |
18 | ![]() |
Crimescene (2024) | 1.47 | 7.23 | 300 | 5.73 |
19 | ![]() |
Kaijus From Space! (2025) | 2.05 | 7.96 | 200 | 5.72 |
20 | ![]() |
Motley (2024) | 1.31 | 7.17 | 300 | 5.72 |
21 | ![]() |
Patinhos de Bo’Racha (2024) | 1.85 | 7.15 | 300 | 5.72 |
22 | ![]() |
What on Earth Are You Talking About? (2024) | 1.22 | 6.94 | 350 | 5.71 |
23 | ![]() |
Dream Catcher (2024) | 1.42 | 7.04 | 300 | 5.70 |
24 | ![]() |
Things in Rings (2024) | 1.16 | 7.00 | 300 | 5.70 |
25 | ![]() |
One Card Wonders (2024) | 1.45 | 7.25 | 250 | 5.69 |