Predicting Upcoming Board Games

Predictive Models for BoardGameGeek Ratings

Author

Phil Henrickson

Published

April 11, 2025

1 Predictions

I use historical data from BoardGameGeek (BGG) to train a number of predictive models for community ratings. I first classify games based on their probability of achieving a minimum number of ratings on BGG. I then estimate each game’s complexity (average weight) in order to predicts its number of user ratings and average rating. I then use these estimates to predict the expected Geek Rating.

1.1 Upcoming Games

The following table displays predicted BGG outcomes for games that are expected to achieve at least 25 user ratings.

1.2 Top Predictions by Year

What are the model’s top predictions for each year?

Top Upcoming Predictions: 2024
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Undergrove (2024) 2.73 8.15 9600 7.69
2 The Paradox Initiative (2024) 3.05 7.81 18300 7.58
3 Unconscious Mind (2024) 3.43 8.13 6900 7.54
4 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
5 De Zoektocht naar El Dorado: Big Box (2024) 2.33 8.18 4350 7.34
6 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
7 Arcs (2024) 3.18 8.17 3950 7.27
8 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
9 Beyond the Horizon (2024) 3.50 7.89 4850 7.19
10 Stephens (2024) 3.83 8.18 3400 7.19
11 Sankoré: The Pride of Mansa Musa (2024) 4.15 8.41 2750 7.18
12 Teotihuacan: City of Gods – Deluxe Master Set (2024) 3.53 8.26 3050 7.17
13 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
14 Life in Reterra (2024) 2.01 7.45 7300 7.03
15 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Fear of the Unknown (2024) 2.72 8.07 2600 6.95
16 Takenokolor (2024) 1.76 7.86 3150 6.95
17 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
18 The Bad Karmas and The Curse of the Zodiac (2024) 2.63 8.12 2100 6.84
19 Nocturne (2024) 2.13 7.36 4850 6.82
20 Cities (2024) 1.84 7.56 3550 6.82
21 Cascadia: Rolling Rivers (2024) 2.03 7.42 4250 6.80
22 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
23 Wyrmspan (2024) 2.59 7.83 2350 6.76
24 DCeased: Gotham City Outbreak (2024) 2.55 8.16 1750 6.74
25 Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island – Collector’s Edition (Gamefound Edition) (2024) 3.23 7.66 2600 6.72
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2025
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Gloomhaven (Second Edition) (2025) 3.61 8.67 5750 7.85
2 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
3 The Dead Keep (2025) 2.88 8.38 2650 7.14
4 The Lord of the Rings: Fate of the Fellowship (2025) 3.19 8.10 2450 6.93
5 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
6 Nemesis: Retaliation (2025) 3.21 8.02 2200 6.82
7 Food Chain Magnate: Deluxe Edition (2025) 3.80 8.62 1400 6.78
8 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.80 8.12 1800 6.74
9 Sanctuary (2025) 3.14 7.96 1850 6.68
10 Natera: New Beginning (2025) 3.62 8.05 1650 6.65
11 Reign of Hades (2025) 3.31 8.41 1250 6.62
12 Zombicide: White Death (2025) 3.10 8.19 1350 6.58
13 Galactic Cruise (2025) 4.54 8.35 1200 6.57
14 Horror on the Orient Express: The Board Game (2025) 2.90 8.02 1450 6.56
15 Finspan (2025) 2.21 7.62 1950 6.55
16 Photo Tour: North America (2025) 2.09 7.71 1750 6.53
17 The Eternaut (2025) 3.14 8.23 1100 6.47
18 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
19 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
20 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
21 Avalon: The Riven Veil (2025) 3.77 8.31 1000 6.44
22 Ashes Ascendancy (2025) 2.91 8.31 1000 6.44
23 EGO (2025) 3.04 7.77 1400 6.44
24 Between Two Castles Essential Edition (2025) 2.10 7.37 1900 6.41
25 Unmatched: The Witcher – Realms Fall (2025) 2.12 8.17 1000 6.39
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2026
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Terminus Frontier (2026) 4.21 8.97 2550 7.45
2 SCUM: An Eclipse Phase Board Game (2026) 3.61 8.18 2200 6.90
3 Cultured Swines (2026) 1.76 7.46 2300 6.55
4 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
5 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures: Deluxe Edition (2026) 2.89 8.20 950 6.37
6 Echoes of the Sundering (2026) 2.97 8.20 700 6.20
7 Tikal Legend (2026) 3.68 8.05 550 6.05
8 Verrago: The Fantasy Globe Game (2026) 3.63 8.40 450 6.03
9 Casus Belli (2026) 3.67 7.82 500 5.96
10 Vineyard: A Winemaking Game (2026) 2.51 7.76 500 5.95
11 Spokes (2026) 1.87 7.89 450 5.94
12 14ers (2026) 2.09 7.54 500 5.91
13 Formaggio (2026) 2.24 7.51 500 5.90
14 Misfit Heroes (2026) 1.95 7.45 500 5.89
15 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Forbidden Reaches (2026) 2.84 7.69 400 5.87
16 This War of Mine: The Board Game – Second Edition (2026) 2.85 7.47 450 5.86
17 Story of Many (2026) 2.97 8.13 300 5.84
18 Crits & Tricks (2026) 2.13 7.48 400 5.83
19 Neon Hope (2026) 3.20 7.96 300 5.82
20 Bardsung: Tale of the Forsaken Glade (2026) 2.60 7.92 300 5.82
21 Travail (2026) 3.20 8.24 250 5.80
22 Dragon Eclipse: The Grand Quest (2026) 2.49 7.75 300 5.79
23 Release the Eagle (2026) 2.16 7.68 300 5.78
24 Colosseum: Ave Titus (2026) 3.15 7.97 250 5.77
25 Hollow Pact (2026) 3.12 7.88 250 5.76
Top Upcoming Predictions: 2027
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Agricola: Dead Harvest (2027) 3.00 7.78 400 5.88
2 Dead Zone (2027) 2.65 7.59 100 5.60

1.3 Top Predictions by Category

What are the model’s top predictions for different genres of upcoming games?

Top Upcoming Predictions: Economic
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
2 Stephens (2024) 3.83 8.18 3400 7.19
3 Sankoré: The Pride of Mansa Musa (2024) 4.15 8.41 2750 7.18
4 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
5 Food Chain Magnate: Deluxe Edition (2025) 3.80 8.62 1400 6.78
6 Power Grid: Outpost (2024) 3.31 7.98 1750 6.66
7 Natera: New Beginning (2025) 3.62 8.05 1650 6.65
8 Galactic Cruise (2025) 4.54 8.35 1200 6.57
9 Frozen Frontier (2024) 4.27 8.22 1200 6.52
10 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
11 Windmill Valley (2024) 3.05 7.82 1400 6.46
12 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
13 El Burro: A La Granja Game (2024) 3.32 7.98 1200 6.43
14 Oh My Goods!: Big Box (2024) 2.39 8.02 1150 6.42
15 Ascendancy (2024) 3.85 7.94 1200 6.41
16 Speakeasy (2025) 4.13 8.08 1000 6.36
17 Black Forest (2024) 3.95 7.98 1000 6.33
18 House of Fado (2025) 2.58 7.65 1200 6.31
19 Great Western Trail: El Paso (2025) 2.84 7.98 900 6.27
20 Capybara Crush (2025) 1.86 7.81 950 6.24
21 Civolution (2024) 3.87 7.99 800 6.21
22 DAVOS (2025) 2.66 7.55 1050 6.21
23 La Pâtisserie Rococo (2025) 3.89 8.08 650 6.13
24 Foundations of Rome (Maximus Edition) (2024) 2.24 7.47 900 6.11
25 Snow Planner (2025) 3.40 7.72 750 6.11
Top Upcoming Predictions: Card Game
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
2 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
3 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
4 Pampero (2024) 3.77 8.15 3800 7.23
5 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
6 Wyrmspan (2024) 2.59 7.83 2350 6.76
7 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.80 8.12 1800 6.74
8 Astro Knights: Eternity (2024) 2.88 8.25 1600 6.72
9 Unmatched: Sun’s Origin (2024) 2.33 8.41 1150 6.56
10 Finspan (2025) 2.21 7.62 1950 6.55
11 Photo Tour: North America (2025) 2.09 7.71 1750 6.53
12 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
13 Biome (2024) 2.52 8.02 1250 6.47
14 The Eternaut (2025) 3.14 8.23 1100 6.47
15 Imperium: Horizons (2024) 3.68 8.06 1200 6.46
16 Pax Porfiriana: Ultimate Edition (2025) 3.78 8.26 1050 6.45
17 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
18 Ashes Ascendancy (2025) 2.91 8.31 1000 6.44
19 El Burro: A La Granja Game (2024) 3.32 7.98 1200 6.43
20 Oh My Goods!: Big Box (2024) 2.39 8.02 1150 6.42
21 Unmatched: The Witcher – Realms Fall (2025) 2.12 8.17 1000 6.39
22 Unmatched: Slings and Arrows (2024) 2.01 8.00 1050 6.36
23 Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Three (2025) 2.11 8.04 1000 6.35
24 Unstoppable (2025) 3.09 7.96 1000 6.32
25 Tales of Realms and Ruins (2024) 3.32 8.18 850 6.30
Top Upcoming Predictions: Wargame
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Arcs (2024) 3.18 8.17 3950 7.27
2 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
3 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
4 Warleague (2024) 3.04 8.38 1050 6.49
5 Dune: War for Arrakis (2024) 3.68 8.10 900 6.31
6 Axis & Allies: North Africa (2024) 3.44 8.04 850 6.26
7 Undaunted 2200: Callisto (2024) 2.54 7.61 950 6.18
8 The Mesol War (2025) 3.55 8.36 550 6.12
9 American Civil War Commander (2024) 3.50 8.35 500 6.07
10 1848: The Springtime of Nations (2024) 3.55 8.28 500 6.06
11 Night Witches (2025) 2.68 8.05 500 6.01
12 Axis & Allies: Stalingrad (2025) 3.01 8.13 450 5.98
13 The Republic’s Struggle (2024) 3.41 8.07 450 5.97
14 Imperial Borders (2025) 3.19 8.00 450 5.96
15 Red Dust Rebellion (2024) 3.30 7.99 450 5.96
16 Heroes of Might and Magic: Battles (2025) 3.04 8.36 350 5.93
17 Diplomacy: Era of Empire (2025) 3.31 7.91 400 5.90
18 Hannibal: Classic Edition (2025) 2.99 8.58 300 5.90
19 Build & Destroy: Barrinium Dawn (2024) 4.17 8.50 300 5.89
20 Tanto Monta: The Rise of Ferdinand & Isabella 1470-1516 (2024) 3.74 8.37 300 5.87
21 Line of Fire: Burnt Moon (2025) 2.30 7.53 450 5.87
22 Aldarra (2024) 3.64 8.33 300 5.87
23 Dune: Kwisatz Haderach Edition (2025) 3.63 8.24 300 5.86
24 Vijayanagara: The Deccan Empires of Medieval India, 1290-1398 (2024) 3.51 8.06 300 5.83
25 France ’40: 2nd Edition (2024) 3.34 8.50 250 5.83
Top Upcoming Predictions: Fantasy
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Gloomhaven (Second Edition) (2025) 3.61 8.67 5750 7.85
2 Everdell Duo (2025) 2.18 8.01 8200 7.52
3 Dead Cells: The Rogue-Lite Board Game (2024) 2.40 7.85 9100 7.43
4 The Lord of the Rings: Duel for Middle-earth (2024) 2.46 7.78 7700 7.31
5 The Dead Keep (2025) 2.88 8.38 2650 7.14
6 Heroscape Master Set: Age of Annihilation (2024) 3.13 8.56 2000 7.03
7 Cthulhu: Death May Die – Fear of the Unknown (2024) 2.72 8.07 2600 6.95
8 The Lord of the Rings: Fate of the Fellowship (2025) 3.19 8.10 2450 6.93
9 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
10 Unmatched Adventures: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2025) 1.87 7.63 3700 6.88
11 The Bad Karmas and The Curse of the Zodiac (2024) 2.63 8.12 2100 6.84
12 Nocturne (2024) 2.13 7.36 4850 6.82
13 Wyrmspan (2024) 2.59 7.83 2350 6.76
14 Dragon Eclipse (2025) 2.80 8.12 1800 6.74
15 Zombicide: White Death (2025) 3.10 8.19 1350 6.58
16 Weirdwood Manor (2024) 3.66 8.35 1200 6.57
17 Phantom Epoch (2024) 3.71 8.57 1000 6.52
18 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
19 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
20 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
21 Spirit Fire (2025) 2.41 7.83 1350 6.44
22 Avalon: The Riven Veil (2025) 3.77 8.31 1000 6.44
23 Ashes Ascendancy (2025) 2.91 8.31 1000 6.44
24 Ascendancy (2024) 3.85 7.94 1200 6.41
25 Fall of Lumen (2024) 3.30 8.07 1100 6.41
Top Upcoming Predictions: Abstract Strategy
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Cities (2024) 1.84 7.56 3550 6.82
2 Umbrella (2024) 1.73 7.22 1550 6.25
3 Capybara Crush (2025) 1.86 7.81 950 6.24
4 Santorini: Pantheon Edition (2025) 1.55 7.59 1000 6.20
5 Santorini: Second Edition (2025) 1.56 7.59 900 6.15
6 Fire Flowers (Clear Duets & Solo Series) (2024) 1.90 7.37 900 6.08
7 Knitting Circle (2025) 1.96 7.34 650 5.95
8 Spokes (2026) 1.87 7.89 450 5.94
9 Build & Destroy: Barrinium Dawn (2024) 4.17 8.50 300 5.89
10 Seed (2024) 1.72 7.31 550 5.89
11 BOG (2024) 1.71 7.20 500 5.84
12 Crops (2025) 2.01 7.47 400 5.83
13 Quiltable: Paper Quilts (2024) 1.94 7.68 350 5.82
14 Intarsia (2024) 2.11 7.16 450 5.81
15 Coney (2024) 1.95 7.33 400 5.81
16 Hidden Leaders Duel (2025) 1.90 7.41 350 5.78
17 Hexer, reino del caos (2024) 1.85 7.29 350 5.77
18 Overgrowth (2024) 2.03 7.53 300 5.76
19 Tesela (2024) 1.76 7.27 350 5.76
20 MATRX GIPF (2024) 2.36 7.50 300 5.76
21 Hexed (2024) 2.61 7.79 250 5.75
22 Azul Duel (2025) 2.21 7.41 300 5.75
23 YET (2024) 2.17 7.17 350 5.75
24 Prismatic (2024) 2.07 7.40 300 5.75
25 Enso Koi: King of the Pond (2024) 2.37 7.72 250 5.75
Top Upcoming Predictions: Dice
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Heroscape: Age of Annihilation – Battle for the Wellspring (2024) 2.83 8.47 1800 6.91
2 Cascadia: Rolling Rivers (2024) 2.03 7.42 4250 6.80
3 ARDEVUR: The Game of Resources (2024) 2.76 7.57 3300 6.79
4 King of Tokyo: Duel (2024) 1.79 7.54 2500 6.64
5 Horror on the Orient Express: The Board Game (2025) 2.90 8.02 1450 6.56
6 Tiny Epic Dungeons Adventures (2026) 2.79 8.34 1050 6.48
7 GROW SKY (2024) 2.72 7.62 1700 6.47
8 Grimcoven (2025) 3.13 8.19 1100 6.45
9 Cascadia: Rolling Hills (2024) 2.03 7.34 1900 6.40
10 Inventors of the South Tigris (2024) 3.37 7.73 1150 6.31
11 Flash Point: Legacy of Flame (2025) 2.39 7.71 1150 6.31
12 Dune: War for Arrakis (2024) 3.68 8.10 900 6.31
13 Swindler’s Chest (2025) 1.74 7.31 1550 6.29
14 A Song of Ice & Fire: Tactics – Battle of the Trident (2025) 2.57 7.96 900 6.26
15 Ada’s Dream (2025) 3.16 7.85 950 6.26
16 Witchbound (2025) 2.68 7.85 900 6.23
17 Arydia: The Paths We Dare Tread (2025) 3.38 8.15 750 6.22
18 Civolution (2024) 3.87 7.99 800 6.21
19 Enormity (2025) 3.22 8.14 650 6.15
20 King of Tokyo: Origins (2024) 1.57 7.15 1250 6.13
21 Emerald Skulls (2025) 1.68 7.31 1050 6.12
22 Snow Planner (2025) 3.40 7.72 750 6.11
23 Rocket Rescue (2024) 3.35 7.95 650 6.10
24 Marvel Dice Throne: Captain Marvel, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Black Widow (2024) 1.91 7.78 700 6.09
25 Minos: Dawn of the Bronze Age (2024) 3.76 8.03 600 6.08
Top Upcoming Predictions: Party Game
Rank Image Game Average Weight Average Rating Users Rated Geek Rating
1 Cultured Swines (2026) 1.76 7.46 2300 6.55
2 One Round? (2025) 1.11 7.43 850 6.07
3 Poetry for Neanderthals: Pop Culture Edition (2024) 1.00 7.13 1000 6.04
4 Destek Köstek (2024) 1.13 7.25 700 5.95
5 Context (2024) 1.42 7.36 600 5.93
6 Tawa (2024) 1.37 7.50 450 5.87
7 Excalibur (2025) 1.77 7.43 400 5.82
8 Deadly Dinner: Kaviar Kills (2024) 2.31 7.42 400 5.82
9 KADO (2024) 1.36 7.03 500 5.81
10 Finding Anastasia (2024) 2.27 7.71 300 5.79
11 Anne Bonny’s Malediction (2025) 1.42 7.00 450 5.78
12 EKKO (2024) 1.39 6.91 450 5.76
13 Cyberpunk Attack (2024) 2.24 7.49 300 5.76
14 Party Panda Pirates (2024) 1.36 7.39 300 5.75
15 Crimescene (2024) 1.47 7.23 300 5.73
16 Kaijus From Space! (2025) 2.05 7.96 200 5.72
17 Motley (2024) 1.31 7.17 300 5.72
18 Patinhos de Bo’Racha (2024) 1.85 7.15 300 5.72
19 What on Earth Are You Talking About? (2024) 1.22 6.94 350 5.71
20 Dream Catcher (2024) 1.42 7.04 300 5.70
21 Things in Rings (2024) 1.16 7.00 300 5.70
22 One Card Wonders (2024) 1.45 7.25 250 5.69
23 Exposure (2025) 1.88 7.52 200 5.68
24 Bitcoin: The Mining Game (2024) 2.19 7.48 200 5.68
25 Bad Trevor (2024) 1.48 6.87 300 5.68